Should Iraq be split up into Shi’ite, Sunni, and Kurd territorialities or remain united as one country?
Every country is bound by its history. The United States, when deciding the future of Iraq -- and we are the ones to decide its future, since we are currently the ruling power in the region -- will draw from its own history to answer the above question.
America's history shows that a strong centralized government is a better government. A good example of a strong government uniting and stabilizing a sovereign territory is the evolution of the United States of America from a confederate system to a federal system. Decentralization, in the first case, made governance impossible. Taxes were not collected, an army was not raised, and finally and most importantly -- internal conflict was not adequately managed.
Once a strong central government was put into place, it was able to unite the different territories under a single rule. Taxes were collected, an army was raised, and internal conflict was better managed.
The major conflict -- the Civil War -- although it was bloody and terrible, was not able to shatter this system. Under a confederate system, a civil war would most likely have led to dissolution of the republic.
A decentralized three-government solution has several problems. First, it will be more open to external pressures from Iran, Syria, and the United States. Its people, while having more say in a decentralized government, will be held hostage to external interests and will have insufficient power to hold off these interests. Second, whither Baghdad? Sectarian fighting between the Shiia and the Sunni will most likely break out over this holy and ancient city. This brings the greater question of territorial division -- and we know the importance of territory in the Middle East.
A strong, central Iraq will better manage any internal conflict and present a strong face to the outside world. Centralization makes the possibility of dictatorship more likely, since all parties will compete for absolute control, yet the development of liberal institutions that constrain such outcomes are the hallmark of Westernizing any non-democratic regime.
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