The futility of the Lebanon offensive

The end of Israel’s Lebanon offensive cannot possibly provide any stable solution to the Hezbollah problem. The IDF’s entrance into Lebanon in search of Hezbollah has produced mass civilian casualties that have only emboldened Hezbollah’s backers, Iran and Syria. Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now pledges to stand in support of Lebanon, and Syria shows no signs of giving in to American and European diplomacy. Even if diplomacy can somehow buckle either Iran or Syria from publicly denouncing Hezbollah, that diplomatic victory will simply gain them immunity from military strikes. This means that the aid from Hezbollah-supporting groups in Iran and Syria will continue to flow, yet the IDF will be unable to execute surgical strikes within either country because those countries' governments will be complying with international demands.

And what of Hezbollah? Weeks into the offensive, Hezbollah has been able to maintain its 100-rockets-day barrage of Israeli territory. If the IDF has been unable to find even a significant amount of weapons stashed away in Lebanon, they stand no chance of effectively incapacitating the Hezbollah leadership without significant Lebanon casualties. Their hands are politically-bound on this front, as their attack of Qana has shown -- Israel was forced to comply with a Condoleeza Rice-demanded, if only to break it afterwards. Israel cannot afford another Qana without facing anything from Security Council condemnations (which the United States will most likely veto) to anti-Semitic protests in other countries. (A major factor binding Israeli policy choices is the world's reaction against the Jewish diaspora, which is why Israel has to be doubly careful not to anger heavily-Jewish countries.)

Israel’s only chance of removing the Hezbollah threat is an military incursion into Syria and Iran. But because such an act is politically infeasible, the problem will remain unsolved even the end of the Lebanon offensive.